If you're like most lawyers, you've probably had clients ask: "What do you think the chances are?" And no doubt you've had the answer covered - as a lawyer you're an expert in predicting legal outcomes.
But let's say you tell your client there's a "real possibility" of an outcome. Can you really be sure these words mean the same thing to your client as they do to you? (tip: they probably don't)
And wouldn't it be great not to give "it depends" answers once the chances start getting complicated, but to actually show your client how all the uncertainties fit together to affect the chances overall?
Understanding and applying probabilities lets you:
→ avoid risky client misunderstandings
→ find overall chances in complex cases
So, you're ready to give probabilities a go? Great!
We're with you on this one, so here's some more info and tools to help you get started:
Some studies to flesh out the "why"→ Survey 1: How words get misinterpreted → Survey 2: How words get misinterpreted→ A seminal CIA study on words of estimative probability → Deep dive: Lessons from the intelligence community→ Video deep dive: Lessons from the intelligence community
Let's get practical and make it happen!Go to the tools